Iranian Fauxtography--Caught by A Blogger

The Iranian Mullahs have been really rattling their sabers this week, firing test launches of their Shahab 3 missile while issuing statements about how, in so many words, they can whip Israel and America with one hand tied behind their back.

This Washington Post story notes that while we are still wondering about how well their missiles work, at we have learned that Iran has and has figured out how to use Photoshop. It seems they digitally 'cloned in' a third missile in photos of one of their missile shoots that Wash Po ran. Apparently, the real 3rd missile was a dud and misfired, so those clever Iranians Photoshopped the 3rd one back in the shot.

Interestingly, it was not the Wash Post who caught the Iranians in their Photoshopping; it was blogger Charles Johnson of Little Greenfootballs who caught the Iranian fraudsters and scooped the big media on it. However, according to Johnson's post on his blog, he had work hard to stop both the New York Times and Fox News from taking credit for catching the fraud.

In the last several years, bloggers--Charles Johnson being one of them--have repeatedly scooped the big media and also caught them--unwittingly but stupidly I believe--acting as conduits for propaganda put out by Iran and its proxies like Hezbollah. It was Johnson who during the 2006 Israel incursion into Lebanon forced the Reuters agency to retract several news photos they had published that turned out to have been digitally altered by their photographer, who turned out to be in the employ of Hezbollah.

I cannot help but wonder how Vietnam might have turned out for the United States if we had had some bloggers with a passion for the truth instead of having the likes of Walter Cronkite, Dan Rather, et al. as our only source of news.

The Wheels of Justice Turn Slowly

After being convicted and effectively lynched by the print media and cable TV years ago and having been singled out as being under the ‘umbrella of suspicion’ by Boulder Colorado police for years, the prosecutor in the Jon Benet Ramsay case has announced that new DNA evidence has exonerated the parents of the little girl, who was murdered over eleven years ago.

According to Wikipedia, the parents, John and Patsy Ramsey, along with their son Burke, have filed defamation suits against a host of big time media companies including Fox News, Time Inc, Star, The Globe, Court TV, St. Martin’s Press, American Media, and The New York Post.

Earlier today, the Boulder County District Attorney Mary Lacy sent a letter to John Ramsey (his wife Patsy Ramsey died of ovarian cancer in 2006) apologizing for ‘contributing in any way to the public perception that you might have been involved in this crime.’ She went on to say that “No innocent person should have to endure such an extensive trial in the court of public opinion, especially when public officials have not had sufficient evidence to initiate a trial in a court of law.”

Amen.

I doubt that John Ramsey will take any solace in this, but I feel sure that—besides the real murderer of Jon Benet Ramsey—there are reserved spots in hell that await a pretty large number of people in government and the media who were part of this modern day lynch mob.

Poor Ol' Jesse

Looks like the Reverend Jesse Jackson got himself in a little hot water by making ‘disparaging and crude’ remarks about Barack Obama into an open microphone.

Mellifluous mea culpa’s are now flying out of the Rev’s mouth, as he simply can’t apologize fast enough for saying among other things that he wanted to “tear his (Obama’s) nuts off.”

Myself, I will marvel at the solidarity that these Democratic politicians exhibit—and watch for the YouTube of the Rev. Jesse saying what he really said.

Well and Truly Surprised

We won’t say it’s a cold day in hell, but it is a bit cooler than normal.

Finally, there comes something that Cat-E-Whompus and Speaker Nancy Pelosi can agree about. Since she became Speaker of the House, she has had my vote as the worst—absolutely worst—Speaker the country has ever had. But today, she gets and official Cat-E-Whompus ‘Attagirl’ for her letter to the President asking him to dump some oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on the market.

You can read her letter here, where it is reproduced in its entirety. There are two good things about Pelosi’s letter that I want to comment on:

First--Lets Shock Sense Into The Investors

The first is that the action Pelosi wants to be taken will do more good than she likely even realizes. While Congress has been busy scapegoating ‘speculators’ as the bad guys responsible, the real reason that oil is so high is the market psychology surrounding oil.

While there is a long term secular trend for oil to go up because of rising demand, there has been nothing in the patterns of demand and supply for oil itself to justify the recent exponential increases. However, a tremendous amount of capital has flowed in to the oil market as a result of the credit crunch, and the attendant declines in the stock market and the real estate market.

Add to this the fact that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates so much that the dollar, already in decline, became a veritable shrinking violet, and the table for bubble creation is set.

Rising oil prices have been one place where hedge funds, retirement funds, and retail investors could make money. Bubbles take place when pricing gets all out of kilter with the supply and demand relationship. In the last ten months or so, a lot of money—hundreds of billions of dollars—flowed out of the inhospitable real estate, credit, and stock markets and flowed into—oil, corn, and other commodities. Add to this the tidal wave of liquidity—when they say that they mean dollars—that have been ‘injected’ by the Federal Reserve to shore up the credit markets and you get just what we got: a bubble in one of the few things that can be invested in these days that is still going up. Up from the ground rises that bubbling crude. Oil, that is. Texas tea. You know the rest.

So if some oil were released from the SPR by the government what would we have? The answer is and injection of oil supply that just might shock investors—including the big institutions that have the big bucks invested—into thinking that oil prices might not go up indefinitely. Once that big investor thinking changes, the excess price will start to come out of the commodity. And there is between $60 and $70 per barrel that is excess.

Second--Are The Democrats Waking Up On Oil Issue?

Up to now, the Democrats have been stuck on stupid in their total unwillingness to consider new oil drilling either off shore or in the ANWR. Sixty percent plus of Americans don’t agree with them, and our economy is now in serious hurt because of their multi-year obstructionism. McCain—who by all rights should lose the election big time—has recently begun to land some good shots on Obama and the Democrats on this issue. Bush has been hanging back in the weeds, calling for increased drilling but taking no action on his own accord,. H probably realizes that any initiative he puts forward would be shot by the Democrats who are held hostage by the enviro-stremists.

Pelosi’s letter—along with Dem. Senator Dick Durbin’s comment that he ‘would consider’ supporting new offshore drilling—is a harbinger of change in the Democratic position. Also, Dem .Jim Webb has gone against Obama on offshore drilling, proposing a bill that would promote drilling off the Virginia coast. He coyly claims that his proposal pertains only to ‘natural gas.’

Can an Obama flip-flop—excuse me, I mean pivot—be far behind.

Anything that indicates our political class might be moving in the direction of increasing American oil supplies is grounds for at least a little optimism. Pelosi’s letter is at least that.

Book On It's Way Here: The Big Sort

I just ordered this book entitled "The Big Sort" after having heard the author interviewed on the "Bloomberg On The Economy" radio program this afternoon. What caught my eye--ear actually--was the author's thesis that America has become 'Balkanized' into little groups of people who try to cluster together with other people 'just like them.' He also talks about our 'growing intolerance for political differences.'

Sounds like it worth $16.50--and I'm Amazon Prime so I get free shipping!

Some Notes on LInks

A few notes about my "links" section:

Brendon Loy's New Blog
Which if you click the link is entitled "Hopefully Considered" is a replacement for his Irish Trojan Blog which I have carried a link to for a long time. I began to follow Brendan back in 2005 when--as a young law student at Notre Dame--he blogged about Hurricane Katrina, and was quite accurately predicting what was about to happen to New Orleans a good 48 hours before it happened. If only the Feds and Mayor Nagin had read what this kid was saying, a lot of the tragedy that unfolded would have possibly been mitigated.

I was most impressed with Brendan then, and I have remained impressed ever since. He is now finished with law school, married, has a child, and is practicing law as a young attorney in the Knoxville, Tennessee area. His posts are both intelligent and refreshing.

Rasmussen Reports
I have heard many interviews on various programs with pollster Scott Rasmussen, who is the head of polling firm Rasmussen Reports. Their web site is worth a look as you can get a good cross section of American opinion on a lot of questions that Rasmussen polls on.

Many good items here including this gem about how Congress has a job approval rating in the single digits. They have to look up to even see President Bush. Another interesting story his how the approval rating of the Supreme Court jumped after the court overturned the DC gun ban in the Heller case. There is also a poll about whether the majority of voters agree with wimpy and whiny Senator Harry Reid that "Coal makes us sick; oil makes us sick; its global warming. It's ruining our world." Check it out to find out what people really think on a variety of issues.

Old Musings
Last but certainly not least is this blatant plug for my wife Beth's own blog. Beth--who makes a substantial and welcome contribution to our living as a freelance writer--has her own unique and distinct way of looking at the world. In her blog, she writes about personal issues and daily experiences that are important to her. I'm married to her, and yet I learn new things in almost every post she puts up. She has a very different view point from mine; please give her blog a look if you haven't done so already.

Hope Springs--At Least For A While

Monday and Tuesday, July 7th and 8th, have seen the price of crude oil drop $3.92 on Monday and more than $5 a barrel today. The price closed today at $136.04 and hit an intra-day low of $135.13.

At least in the short run, there is a glimmer of hope for more reductions. Keep in mind, however, that if the Iran/Israel/United States situations heats up even just a little the price will likely shoot back up again.

T. Boone Pickins, the Texas oil gazillionaire, has been widely quoted in the price predicting that oil was going higher. Today, he is quoted in this story and is talking out of both sides of his mouth. On the one hand, he says that oil may stay around $150 a barrel for quite a while. On the other hand, he also says that the price will likely decline and settle about $100 a barrel. I guess it sort of depends on who he is talking to.

On another front, US Oil--the ETF with the symbol USO that allows even us ordinary mortals to invest in crude oil futures--has a seen heavy buying of put options with a strike price of $80 for January 2009. Put options give the purchaser of the option the right to buy shares on the market and then sell them back to person who sold them the put. Such options would only be profitable if the price of USO fell beneath the strike price of the option.

This activity is telling us that a sizeable number of investors are placing bets that USO--goes up and down with crude oil futures and which closed today at $109--is going to drop signficantly before January 2009. More on this in this here (see the second bulleted paragraph.)

So, at least for now, there is hope of some relief. However, I don't believe a word of the stuff that has been appearing in the media today about the chances of improved relations with Iran.

As long as the mullahs rule that country there is no chance of that actually happening.

By the way--full disclosure--I own energy stocks but have no position long or short in USO.

Happy 3rd of July

It’s 2008 and everyone reading this has made it to another 3rd of July. I hope that wherever you are, you will have a safe and happy Fourth.

There are several topics to discuss today…

Oil Prices

Still Rising
Since my last post on this topic, crude oil prices have continued to climb, almost hitting $146 per barrel before backing off a little back down to $143.57. In earlier posts, I have talked about an oil price bubble that is pushing prices higher than supply and demand and the marginal cost of producing oil would support.

There is increasing evidence of demand destruction for fuel in the United States, as not only are motorists cutting back, but also airlines are taking planes out of service and reducing the overall miles they fly. Foreign countries have been evidencing distress at the sharply increasing prices, and even China—blamed for much of the rise in price due to its rapidly expanding oil use—has cut it subsidies by 18%.

While I have heard analysts argue that the 18% cut won’t reduce Chinese demand very much, it is a tell-tale, as is the reduction of oil subsidies in India and some other countries. The bottom line is that the current prices are so high nobody can really afford them—not us, not China, not India, and certainly not Europe.

India and China Stocks Fall
By the way, stock markets in both China and India are falling off a cliff. China is down 53 percent and India down 36 percent respectively. What this says is that the markets do not assess these economies to be the growers that they once were. Some of this decline—how much is not possible to discern—is due to the high price these countries have to pay for their ‘oil addictions.’ Could this be a harbinger of things to come? I would say most likely it is.

And yet oil prices continue to rise, up, up, and up some more. Why?

What The Market Is Telling Us
The ‘smart money’ in the market—in other words, the really big money managers backed up with analysis and information that us little guys don’t get, certainly not on the Mass Media--seems to be pricing in two things into oil.

Pricing In The Weak Dollar
First, the market seems to believe that weak economic conditions in the US have tied the hands of the Federal Reserve, rendering it unable—or at least unwilling--to raise interest rates in the short run. The current low level of rates tend to keep the US dollar weak and promotes inflation. Oil and gold both look attractive to investors as a hedge for investors against inflation.

Pricing In An Israeli Strike On Iran
The other contingency that the smart money is pricing in is that sooner rather than later, Israel will strike Iran and attempt to take out its nuclear facilities. The corollary to this is that Iran will attempt to close the Straits or Hormuz, through which passes some one fifth of worlds oil on its way to market. Indeed, the Iranians have been expanding their military capabilities to do just that, by building new naval bases across the shoreline, and by concentrating small, high speed torpedo and short range missile attack boats in the area.

May Happen Soon
If Israel is going to strike Iran, we probably will not have to wait long to see how it plays out. Israel cannot—absolutely cannot—allow the Islamic radical leadership of Iran to have the existential power over Israel that possession of atomic weaponry and the means to deliver it convey. Israel may have hell to pay as a result of acting against Iran, but they will have no choice. The mullahs in Iran have so far bluffed their way very close to an atomic capability, and they have clearly stated their murderous intentions against Israel on many occasions. You can bet that Israel is taking the Iranian threats against them very seriously.

The Odds of A Strike On Iran Are High
Therefore, Cat-e-Whompus believes there is around an 80 percent probability of Israel striking Iran before we inaugurate our next President in January of 2009. Cat-e-whompus also predicts that the US will be drawn into such an action—on a limited scale—if the strike actually occurs. The mullahs in Iran will try to close the straits and attack US forces in the region. This will prove to be a major blunder on the Iranians part, as they cannot withstand the focused firepower of the US air and naval forces that will—for sure—be brought to bear on them if they attack any US assets in the region.

Potentially Big Impact On Oil Prices
The effect on oil prices of these events will be frightening: I am seeing predictions—all too believable in my opinion—that prices could spike as high as $250. However, once it becomes obvious that Iran is a paper tiger who cannot block the straits for any length of time—and that their nuclear ambitions have been thwarted—oil prices are likely to drop precipitously. I would guess they would likely settle out in the $90 to $100 per barrel range.

The Presidential Race

Clinton

Gone
Hillary Clinton withdrew from the race sometime back—defeated in no small measure by her husbands inept campaigning on her behalf—and has thrown her support behind Barack Obama. As a result, we have our two candidates—McCain and Obama squaring off. Polls say Obama is leading, although if you average them out, he is not yet leading by a great deal.

McCain

Struggling To Find His Message
McCain has been struggling to get his campaign in gear. He just brought Steve Schmidt into his campaign. Schmidt—who ran the Governator’s highly successful re-election campaign here in California and also was a top aide in the Bush 2004 presidential campaign—is 37 years young and is known as one of the most effective campaign managers anywhere. That bodes for better results for McCain than he has been having for the last few weeks. It hasn’t hurt McCain that he went to Colombia this week and was there meeting with the Columbian officials when the Columbian military rescued a number of hostages including a former Columbian presidential candidate and three US contractors from captivity by rebels of the left leaning persuasion.

The Oil Price Issue: On the Potentially Winning Side
The other thing that will help McCain if he just will keep on banging the drum for it is his call to open up the coastal areas of the United States and ANWR for drilling. The Democrats—all tied as they are to the environmentalists—are at a distinct disadvantage on this one.

Obama

Obama, for his part, is still the best orator in front of large crowds of any candidate we have seen since John F. Kennedy. Nonetheless, Cat-e-Whompus believes that the bloom is coming off the Obama rose. To be specific:

Flip Flopping On Reverend Wright
Obama first couldn’t bring himself to abandon the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, and less than two weeks later when Wright repeated his incendiary Black Power style remarks, Obama couldn’t throw him under the bus fast enough.

Flip Flopping On Campaign Financing
More recently, Obama has flip-flopped on his campaign promise to accept public funds and thereby limit the amount of campaign funds he would be able to raise.

Flip Flopping On Iraq
And now the latest: Obama is now saying that he is going to do a “thorough assessment of his Iraq policy. One of his advisors said he “is not wedded” to a specific timeline. Of course this means that his oft-repeated promise to withdraw troops from Iraq beginning immediately after his inauguration at the rate of one or two brigades a month until all are home in 2009 is now empty, hollow rhetoric. He needed to take that position in order to get the Democratic ‘net-roots’ to support him for the nomination; now that the nomination is in hand, suddenly, Obama feels he can afford to get ‘realistic’.

Makes Sure He Gets His
This week, the Washington post reported that right after he was newly elected as a senator, Obama got a ‘good-guy’ politician’s discount on the interest rate for a $1.32 million home loan he took out from Northern Trust Bank to buy a six bedroom mansion in a tony Chicago neighborhood. Northern Trust employees have donated $71,000 to his campaign; also, Obama was assisted financially in the home purchase by his former fundraiser and now convicted felon Tony Resko. More ‘Change you can believe in’ from Obama, that’s for sure.

Cozy With The Teamsters
The Wall Street Journal, known for checking its facts meticulously, writes here that Obama made a private promise to end the oversight of the Teamsters Union by the Independent Review Board, created in 1989 by the feds in an attempt to get rid of the influence of organized crime on the union. In return for this, he was officially endorsed by the Teamsters Union. The Teamsters may or may not still be under some degree of influence by the Mob, but Obama’s position cozying up to them given their history is certainly inconsistent with his ‘high-moral-ground’ based 'message of change'.

Today’s Bottom Line

Presidential Race
Slowly but surely, Obama has begun to descend from his mainstream media created “Cloud Nine” position and is plainly and publicly looking more and more like he really is. When you get beneath his platitudes and rhetoric, he is just another blathering, flip-flopping politician who is about as loyal to his ‘principled positions’ as philanderers are to their wives. He and his surrogates are showing that they will say and do anything to get elected.

McCain has flip flopped too, but not nearly as much and not so conveniently Obama. Obama says what is expedient at the time, and what he thinks will get him elected. Of the two, McCain has convinced me that he is the more honest and trustworthy of the two candidates.

As to who will win the election: it could still go either way. Neither candidate has got a lock on it yet.

Oil

Hold on too your wallets. Its going to get worse before it gets better.

Private Airspace

Al Gore’s energy usage at his home is up 10% over last year, and he uses more than 19 times the amount of energy that is used by the average American family.

But that’s not his only problem, Americans for Prosperity, a conservative grassroots organization that educates citizens about economic and public policy, wanted to fly a hot-air balloon over Al Gore’s Nashville house to publicize the high cost of what they term global warming extremism. Gore wasn’t about to take this invasion of his hot airspace lying down; he used his considerable political influence in Nashville to try to find some legal grounds to deny the group permission to launch their balloon.

You can read all about it here. An added attraction at the link is one of the most unflattering pictures of the self-styled ‘inventor of the internet’ that you ever did see.

Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less

A group called American Solutions has an online petition you can sign up for that calls on Congress to increase oil production to lower gas prices here in the US. They have over 1 million signatures so far, including mine on the petition.

You can sign the online petition here.

Congresswoman Lynn Westmoreland is circulating a pledge to members of Congress that reads” I will vote to increase U.S. oil production to lower gas prices for American. This pledge has garnered 72 House members when I looked earlier today. Not surprisingly, only one is a Democrat.

The Democrats--whatever they may say---actually think that the more people have to pay for gas, the better. They seem want to stamp out gasoline and have us all run on wind power. After all, Al Gore has been running on hot air for years.

Gas Rationing In Tijuana?

The Mexican government subsidizes gasoline and diesel. Their pump prices are much lower than ours: $2.54 for regular gas, $3.19 for premium, and $2.20 for diesel.

Gas stations along the US/Mexico are being mobbed by US drivers who have been buying up the cheaper Mexican fuel. This has created long lines and shortages, and Mexican gas stations are running out of fuel.

More on this story here.

Democrats Say: The Government Should Own Refineries

The Democrats, realizing that they are risk of becoming perceived as part of the problem with oil, reacted with several comments. Rep. Ed Markey of Massaschusetts saidt “you cannot drill your way out of this.”

Rep. Maurice Hinchey of New York let out the cat out of the bag as far as what the real Democratic agenda is. He said, “We (the government) should own the refineries. Then we can control how much gets out into the market.”

I cannot help but note that the things that the government controls now are not very well run. Our highway system is degrading, and parts of it are in very poor shape. Amtrak has never run on time or provided good service. Just try signing up for disability and see how long it takes you to get benefits. Hinchey and the Democrats want to nationalize the refineries? Come on…get real.

Some New Sources For Oil

Iraq has announced signed agreements with Western oil companies and plans to boost its oil output by 600,000 barrels a day. This is not tomorrow; the contracts are to carry out needed repairs to the Iraqi oil infrastructure.

Also, Saudi Arabia has announced it will increase its daily oil output by 200,000 barrels a day. We will have to wait and see what happens when the Saudi’s host their meeting of oil producing and consuming countries over the weekend. I cannot believe the Saudis are done adding to the oil supply.

Oil Demand Is Dropping

Oil prices may be turning around, and a top—at least for now—may be in.

Oil demand destruction appears to have gotten underway.

Americans have sharply curtailed the miles they are driving. The Federal Highway Administration has reported that the number vehicular miles driven in the United States is down by 4.5 percent, or 4.5 billion (yes, that’s billion with a ‘b’) fewer miles being driven in April. That’s a lot of gas that wasn’t burned, folks—a lot of gas.

China says it will raise the price of gas and diesel, as well as other petrol products today. Crude oil future dropped , settling around $132.78 on Thursday.

China has been importing oil at the world price and then charging its consumers a government established lower price in order to keep its economic development going. At $130 a barrel, oil has apparently gotten too expensive for the Chinese government to maintain their artificially low price to users—so they are going to pass some of it through.

Haditha Marine Update

Lt. Col. Jeffrey Chessani, whose case I discussed in my post yesterday, is through his lawyer talking publically about suing Rep. John Murtha, who publicly labeled the accused Haditha Marines “cold blooded killers” right after the incident. Murtha made these statements in spite of two separate military investigations that found no evidence that the Marines had targeted noncombatants.

Chessani’s lawyer, Brian Rooney (himself a former Marine Corp officer) says his client is also considering filing suit against Tim McGuirk, the Time Magazine reporter who published the accusations against the Marines. According to Rooney, the Time Magazine story that triggered the investigation was a “plant” by Iraqi insurgents.

More details here.

Too Few Good Men

Another Haditha Case Dismissed

Yesterday AP ran this story. The gist of the story is that another case against one of the Marines charged with in connection with the Haditha, Iraqq ‘atrocity’ case was dismissed—this one against Marine Lt. Colonel Jeff Chessani who was charged with failing to investigate the alleged ‘murder’ of 24 Iraqis by Marines in Haditha, Iraq in 2005.

To date, military prosecutors have failed to convict any of the Marines charged with murdering civilian Iraqi’s at Haditha; they have a batting record of zero. No Marine of any rank has been found guilty of any wrong doing in connection with this incident.. Only one case remains pending: that of Marine SSgt. Frank Wuterich.

The Case of Lt. Col. Chessani
In the most recent case of Lt. Col. Chessani, the presiding military judge dismissed the case due to evidence of ‘unlawful command influence’ in Lt. Col. Chessani’s trial. Unlawful command influence occurs when a superior military officer substitutes or attempts to substitute their judgment for that of a subordinate who should be allowed to exercise independent judgment. Unlawful command influence is called ‘the mortal enemy of military justice’ and is considered an error of constitutional dimension.

Motion For The Defense
The motion filed in military court by the defense counsel of Lt. Col Chessani is available on the Internet here and paints an overwhelming picture of very high military officials and members of the US Congress jumping to conclusions and making serious charges in public as to the guilt of the defendants without having hard evidence to back up their statements.

Rep. Murtha and Others Rush to Judgement
In particular, the motion documents public remarks that Congressman John Murtha made on different occasions, including a news conference where he asserted that he had been told by ‘the highest levels of the Marine Corps’ that the Marines had “killed innocent civilians in cold blood.” The motion also contains a transcript of remarks Murtha made to Chris Matthews on the ‘Hardball’ TV program where he compared Haditha to the Mai Lai massacre in Vietnam, and remarks he made on television to Wolf Blitzer and also to George Stephanopoulis where he repeated his charge that the Marines had ‘massacred’ Iraqi civilians in Haditha.

In addition, the motion documents public statements made by Congressman Kline, Congressman. Charles Rangel, and Senator Carl Levin who all publically asserted the guilt of these Marines before any trial or finding of facts had been held. In fairness, I will note that Senator Levin, in his television appearance, qualified his condemnation of the accused just a little by saying that while the evidence of the Marine’s guilt at Haditha was ‘overwhelming,’ a ‘final judgment’ should not be yet be made until the evidence is in.

Senior Officers Rush to Judgement Too
The motion also documents how at the most senior levels in the Marine Corp there was a rush to judgment that the accused Marines were guilty of an atrocity before investigations were complete and before trials were held. These conclusions were related to Rep. Murtha, Kline, and Rangel as well as Senator Levin and repeated on television by these people as fact.

In fact, the Marine Corps higher-ups were so willing to believe that the soldiers in Haditha were guilty that they began to build training programs around ‘what went wrong’ with the mission in Haditha.

Justice Gets Off Track
Unquestionably, things went wrong in Haditha, but the real crime there appears to be this: that in spite of years of time to investigate and the senior Marine Corps commanders pressured by certain Congressmen to convict, none of the six military trials held so far have yielded evidence that was sufficient to gain a conviction. Not even one.

Because members of Congress—antiwar Democrats by the way—made unsubstantiated but very public assertions asserting that the accused soldiers were guilty, it has been difficult for the Marines accused of the ‘atrocity’ in Haditha to obtain justice.

Since one of these, Rep. Murtha is chairman House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, which will oversee more than $459 billion in military spending this year, the Marine Corp brass yielded to political pressure to bring charges and seek convictions against the Marines involved in the Haditha mission.

Unlawful Command Influence
Fortunately, for both the accused Marines and our county, there are officers in the Marine Corp—and I refer here to Col. Steven Folsom, the judge in Lt. Col. Chessani’s case—who were and are committed to facts and justice. Folsom had the courage to rule that Lt. General James Mattis had wrongfully allowed one of the investigators of the case against Chessani, Col. John Ewers—and who was a potential witness for the prosecution—to join deliberations about whether to file charges against Chessani. This, ruled Col. Folsom, created at least the appearance of an unconscionable conflict of interest.

A great deal more detail about Col. Folsom’s ruling in the Chessani case can be found here.

Six Cases But No Convictions
The fact that no convictions have occurred suggests strongly that a serious injustice was done these Marines by Rep. Murtha others in the House and Senate by their public condemnation of the accused Marines before investigations were complete or trials were held.

The Impact of Rep. John Murtha On The Case
By making these public accusations, Rep. Murtha interfered with military justice. If for no other reason, these actions make him a disgrace to the Marine uniform he once wore, and to the Congress of the United States. And since he is House Speaker Pelosi’s ‘right hand’ man in the House, the fact that she has said and done nothing about his involvement in this case suggests a lack of judgment and uncaring attitude towards our men and women in service. By Speaker Pelosi’s silence about Murtha’s untoward and unjust actions regarding the case against the Haditha Marines, she is condoning Murtha’s activities.

Our Military Must Fight Honorably
Yes, soldiers who fight in the Armed Services of the United States should be held to high ethical and moral standards even in combat. If civilians were in fact killed knowingly, as an act of retribution, which is what the military prosecutors allege, then the perpetrators should without question be brought to justice.

Those Accused Are Entitled to A Fair Trial
But prosecuting a criminal charge against soldiers for some act they committed in a combat situation, the responsible branch of service must hold to the highest standards of objectivity and justice. The case must be made based on the facts, and with a clean and unblemished judicial process. It appears that has been sadly lacking in the case of the Marines accused in connection with the Haditha incident.

Too Few Good Men
Fortunately for this country and for the accused soldiers, there are a still few good men in the Marine Corp--such as Col. Steven Folsom--who are committed to justice.

Signs of California Housing Recovery? Possibly

This report on Bloomberg says that the real estate market in California may be in the early stages of a recovery, citing a rising number of sales of both single family homes and condominiums in some areas. Bloomberg’s story (which is based on the Anderson Report just issued by UCLA) says cites a statistic that the price per square foot for a home in Sacramento dropped 31 percent in March from a year earlier. San Diego prices were down 27 percent for the same time period.

One of the economists, Ryan Ratcliff, who authored the report, is quotes as follows:

“In California, the ``unprecedented speed of the price adjustment means that instead of several years of slow bleeding (like the 1990s), we have compressed the necessary adjustment into two years of intense housing pain,'' Ratcliff wrote in today's report. ``Mom always said it's better to just rip the Band-Aid off.''

A Very Interesting Idea

I saw this story earlier today. The headline in the online version of the London Times is fairly attention grabbing: "Get Osama Bin Laden before I leave office, orders George W. Bush."

The Times story says that Bush has enlisted British assistance to hunt down Bin Laden. The question that one could ask is why Bush has waited until now.

John Hindraker, one of the founders of the Powerline blog, has a theory. He theorizes that the United States has had a very good handle on Bin Laden's whereabouts for quite some time, and has compromised his communications with his minions, which would facilitating the elimination of numerous various Al Qaeda 'senior leaders' over the last few years.

In his post, John carefully labels his idea as speculation, but I think he may well be on to something. I have not believed that Bin Laden has been hiding out in the hinterlands of Pakistan has been reported in the press with the US having no clue as to his whereabouts. I have tended to believe that Bin Laden was dead, but having read John's theory, I think he may right in suggesting that Bin Laden has been left alive deliberately, because his communications have been useful sources of intelligence.

Either way, I don't want Bin Laden captured and then allowed to petition US courts for his constitutional rights, as our liberal Supreme Court justices decided the terrorist prisoners in Guantanamo could do. A direct hit on Bin Laden by a Hell-Fire missile made from a Predator UAV would do nicely. Hopefully, there will be just enough scraps of Bin Laden left to get a positive DNA identification. Soon would not be too soon.

Gentlemen, Choose Your Weapons

The McCain campaign has posted a response on their web site to Obama’s recent quip at a Philly fundraiser where—attempting to be funny—Obama said regarding the McCain campaign, “If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun.”

McCain’s site asks—again with a sense of humor—“Has Obama flip-flopped on gun control?...finally, we’re having second thoughts about our proposed series of town halls.”

Fighting Fire With...?

Barack Obama has a web site set up entitled “Fight the Smears.” On the site, he and his supporters combat the “smears” that have been made against him, including the one that claims a tape exists where Michelle Obama refers to “Whitey,” another that claims Obama is a muslim, another that claims he attended a radical Madrassa, and several more.

How effective this site will be for Obama remains to be seen, but it is interesting for a couple of reasons. First is that are enough of these “smears” going around that Obama feels the need to combat them. The second is that his campaign is willing to take the risk that by actively responding to these rumors using this web site, there could be an unintended consequence of spreading the rumors more widely and perhaps making them more believable—the logic of that being ‘doth he protest too much?’

So Cal Re Home Prices Plummet

Speaking of bubbles popping, lets check in on a big one that is fast leaking air. Southern California home prices are down by 27 percent from 2007 levels. The median price pad was $370,000 down from a peak median price of $505,000 in May 2007.

Foreclosures played a big role: of the homes sold in Riverside County in May 2008, over half were properties REOs, (properties that have been foreclosed and are now owned by a lender).

More on the story here.

His Opinion Counts

David Herro is chief investment officer of Harris Associates and manages in excess of $20 billion in assets. Herro has been running the Oakmark International (OAKIX) and International Small Cap funds (OAKEX) for a dozen years. OAKEX has generated an average return of 16.8 percent over the last 2 years, so Herro’s track record in managing investments is stellar. Herro, like other large fund money managers, has access to a research staff.

In this video interview, Herro talks about the current level oil prices and states unequivocally that he believes that we are experiencing a market bubble in oil. He points out that the same people who jumped in on the huge tech bubble have jumped in on oil. He predicts that crude oil will return to the $60 - $80 per barrel range in the next 2 years or so, but he also points out that right now there is a tremendous amount of market momentum that is propelling oil higher even in the face of deteriorating fundamentals.

Some of the comments posted on the story criticizing Herro’s comments are indicative of the market psychology that is working now. I can still remember back in 1999 and early 2000 all the commentary about how the “new economy” had so changed things that tech stocks with no earnings and no prospect of any would keep going up and up and up. We are in that kind a phase in oil now; some investors—especially small ones—are captivated with the idea that they are on a gravy train that will just go on for ever.

Just remember, if a thing can’t go on for ever, it won’t.